General Chat

Following the storm of last week and some responses on this thread, I have changed the title so that attention can be drawn to any current warnings of adverse weather conditions affecting the UK.

A severe storm is forecasted to hit the UK on Monday 28th October2013 and people are being warned that the storm could bring winds of 90mph & torrential rain resulting in floods :-(

The heavy winds, combined with up to 30mm of rain, could bring down trees and cause structural damage, forecasters have said.

Wales and South West England are likely to be hit first on Monday morning, in time for the beginning of half-term, before the low pressure system moves rapidly east.

Although the path of the storm remains unclear, it is expected to effect large swathes of the country.

Exposed coastal areas in the south could see gusts of up to 90mph, while winds of 70mph are predicted inland.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10399012/Britons-warned-to-batten-down-the-hatches-ahead-of-storm.html

Couldn't see the UK for isobars on the chart Carol showed us this morning.

Doesn't look too bad from what the BBC weather site is forecasting for next week:

''With low pressure still expected to be flirting with the shores of the British Isles, all signs point to our weather remaining unsettled into early November. One subtle change in the positioning of the low pressure centre, with it migrating to the north of the UK, which may mean that southern and eastern parts are spared the worst of the weather. Rain and showers should become increasingly confined to northern and western parts. Temperatures by this stage will start to fall closer to the seasonal norm.''

The picture being given out on the BBC News Channel this morning for Sunday night and Monday seem to contradict that, although they do say they are not sure where the worst of the storm will be, it could move North or it could move South, but outlook for the UK as a whole looks bleak :-(

There is a slight turbulence in the Gulf of Mexico that could pick up into a storm on St Judes Day (Monday).

At present, our long range for South Wales gives an increase of normal wind speed over weekend of 18mph to 28mph and temps dropping to 10-13C on Sunday night/Monday morning.

Telegraph must be struggling for circulation also. Normally Mail and Express are the only ones who continually run these freak weather stories.

So, as Michael Fish would say, someone has sent him a letter saying...... There is no need to worry. Fish has quite a reliable weather site these days and it says there is a 30% risk of a storm on Sunday and Monday, and it will feel very cold indeed at night next week - close to freezing point. But no reason yet to panic unless this turbulence thousands of miles away starts to really whip up as it crosses the Pond.

There are a number of weather forecasting companies. The source mention in Telegraph article is an American station. Woth taking a look at The Weather Network on Wikipedia.

I noticed this, for example:

"Over the years, attempts to broadcast international versions of TWC (apart from Canada's The Weather Network/MétéoMédia and the Australian version of The Weather Channel) failed. TWC also operates websites for online localized forecasts in Brazil, France, Germany, India, Latin America, and the United Kingdom, but some of these sites apparently have not been developed further since 2003. "

We expect more of the Telegraph, don't we?

John, it is not only the Telegraph, the Daily Mail, and the Daily Express who are running, as you put it, these freak weather stories - the BBC News on their regular weather bulletins are giving out information on this potential storm which is predicted to hit the UK on Sunday night and Monday, and those isobar charts say to me that it will be more than a bit gusty.

I don't think anyone is distributing freak weather stories, merely warning people of a real possibility of a storm hitting the UK. In October 1987 they got crucified for not giving sufficient warnings - they can't win it seems.

looking on the BBC weather five day weather forecast there is snow for the Aberystwyth area for Monday :-(

Talking about forecasts reminded me of this thread, from May of this year.. lol


http://www.genesreunited.co.uk/boards/board/general_chat/thread/1324803

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName=uk

The Met Office is currently showing a severe weather warning for Monday for the southwest of the country and south below the Thames.

The Daily Express have severe weather stories nearly every day so I'm not taking much notice of their front page story this morning and if it happens there's not anything I can do to stop it

Time to batten down the hatches :-0

Chief Forecaster's assessment Weather Impact
1038 on Thu 24 Oct 2013
Valid from:
0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013
Valid to:
2100 on Mon 28 Oct 2013


A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell of weather for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding.

At this early stage there is uncertainty about the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies.

A strong, high-level jet is expected to engage warm low level air to give rise to a rapidly moving low pressure system later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in southwesterly winds ahead of the low and west to northwesterly winds behind it.
...............

Thank goodness they are using the phrases "there is uncertainty about the timing, intensity and track" and "There is the potential" implying that it could be less severe than predicted

26 years ago this month, the forecasters got it very wrong.

I for 1 will be 'battening down' the hatches & making sure that there is nothing able to blow about causing damage. I will also check torches & fuel for the generator.

High winds whilst the trees are still heavy with leaves are in danger of falling so out here in the countryside we could get cut off again.

:-(

Oh great, got to be at the docs 9.30 Monday morning!!! :-S

Michael Fish predicts this weather in London for next few days

1.Date 2.Min 3. Max 4. Rain Risk 5Tot Prec 6.Storm Risk
(feels like) (Feels Like)

Thu 24th Oct 8.4°C 19.7°C 0% 0mm 0%

Fri 25th Oct 11.7°C 22.7° 95% 2.6mm 0%

Sat 26th Oct 11.5° 18.7°C 65% 0.2mm 0%

Sun 27th Oct 9.4°C 16.9°C 95% 3.3mm 27%

Mon 28th Oct 3.3°C 16.1°C 90% 9.8mm 19%

Tue 29th Oct 3.5°C 13°C 25% 0mm 0%

Wed 30th Oct 0.3°C 11.4°C 40% 0mm 0%

So very cold nights from nexdt Monday onwards. And about a quarter possibility of a storm late Sunday/early Monday.

Personally, I will check what is happening to present turbulence in Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. And batten everything down and head for the hills (oh, I am already in hills :-( :-() if the risk increases substantially.

Just glad I am not working on Monday. Even 9mm in London translates to roads blocked and reservoirs overflowing in the Valleys :-(

The Met Office - Warnings in place for the United Kingdom

Issued on Thu 24 Oct
Issued at:
1038 on Thu 24 Oct 2013

Valid from:
0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

Valid to:
2100 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell of weather for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding.

At this early stage there is uncertainty about the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies.

Chief Forecaster's assessment:-

A strong, high-level jet is expected to engage warm low level air to give rise to a rapidly moving low pressure system later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in southwesterly winds ahead of the low and west to northwesterly winds behind it.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400®ionName=uk

Forecasts are only forecasts, OFITG. Interesting, but seaweed, go ouside for a few minutes before you turn in and stick your head out of window in morning probably a more reliable guide. :-) ;-)

No good worrying about it, nothing we can do about it, we get what we get, probably being hyped up anyway.

Chill

Londoners have been warned to brace themselves for a violent storm that could batter the city with winds of 70 miles per hour on Sunday evening.

Heavy rain and powerful gusts of wind are expected to hit the capital on Sunday and continue into Monday morning, affecting roads and trains.

The Met office has issued London with a yellow weather warning.

Helen Chivers, forecaster for the Met office, said: “People should be aware this weather system is coming in and these sorts of winds could have an impact on transport networks and bridges.

“It could damage or uproot trees and disrupt power supplies.”

The South Coast will be the worst hit by the storm with winds of more than 80 miles per hour.

Some forecasts predict that the storm could pass through the English Channel and miss land, because the area of low pressure has not yet developed.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brace-yourselves-violent-storm-and-70mph-winds-set-to-batter-london-8903377.html

My boat insurance company has emailed a severe weather warning to all boat owners with a to do list.