General Chat

Just checked Michael Fish 10 day forecast again.

2 days ago for Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday it was storm risk of 0%, 27%, 19% and 0%.

Storm risk has been upgraded for those 4 days to 7%, 37%, 43% and 0%.

That is for London area.

Please, not power cuts. The hardest thing I have to deal with.

I have somebody coming from SSAFA next week to see if they can get me some money to buy a generator, otherwise I may be having to organize rest home accommodation in the middle of the night this winter.

Yes we are getting Amber warnings for Sunday night/Monday morning.
Also thunder and lightening with very strong winds for tonight.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName=uk

The severe weather is now predicted to be much further north than when I posted this link yesterday. Also the South West is expected to be affected on Sunday.

I have just looked at my local weather channel and we have no severe weather warning at all :-S

Looks nasty for tonight for you up you in Wales & oop North

Fri 25 Oct: 16:00 BST

Valid Until
Mon 28 Oct : 18:00 BST (73hrs remaining)

Severe Weather Warning for Heavy Rain / Hail
Valid From: 16:00 - Friday 25th October 2013
Valid Until: 21:00 - Friday 25th October 2013

A shortwave trough across Wales and Northern England is now engaging quicker than expected. Heavy thundery downpours along with large hail and damaging squally winds will push North-east. There is also a significant risk of F1 tornadoes developing where the storms merge into more organised larger cells.

My boat insurance company has emailed a severe weather warning to all boat owners with a to do list.

Londoners have been warned to brace themselves for a violent storm that could batter the city with winds of 70 miles per hour on Sunday evening.

Heavy rain and powerful gusts of wind are expected to hit the capital on Sunday and continue into Monday morning, affecting roads and trains.

The Met office has issued London with a yellow weather warning.

Helen Chivers, forecaster for the Met office, said: “People should be aware this weather system is coming in and these sorts of winds could have an impact on transport networks and bridges.

“It could damage or uproot trees and disrupt power supplies.”

The South Coast will be the worst hit by the storm with winds of more than 80 miles per hour.

Some forecasts predict that the storm could pass through the English Channel and miss land, because the area of low pressure has not yet developed.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brace-yourselves-violent-storm-and-70mph-winds-set-to-batter-london-8903377.html

No good worrying about it, nothing we can do about it, we get what we get, probably being hyped up anyway.

Chill

Forecasts are only forecasts, OFITG. Interesting, but seaweed, go ouside for a few minutes before you turn in and stick your head out of window in morning probably a more reliable guide. :-) ;-)

The Met Office - Warnings in place for the United Kingdom

Issued on Thu 24 Oct
Issued at:
1038 on Thu 24 Oct 2013

Valid from:
0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

Valid to:
2100 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell of weather for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding.

At this early stage there is uncertainty about the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies.

Chief Forecaster's assessment:-

A strong, high-level jet is expected to engage warm low level air to give rise to a rapidly moving low pressure system later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in southwesterly winds ahead of the low and west to northwesterly winds behind it.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400®ionName=uk

Michael Fish predicts this weather in London for next few days

1.Date 2.Min 3. Max 4. Rain Risk 5Tot Prec 6.Storm Risk
(feels like) (Feels Like)

Thu 24th Oct 8.4°C 19.7°C 0% 0mm 0%

Fri 25th Oct 11.7°C 22.7° 95% 2.6mm 0%

Sat 26th Oct 11.5° 18.7°C 65% 0.2mm 0%

Sun 27th Oct 9.4°C 16.9°C 95% 3.3mm 27%

Mon 28th Oct 3.3°C 16.1°C 90% 9.8mm 19%

Tue 29th Oct 3.5°C 13°C 25% 0mm 0%

Wed 30th Oct 0.3°C 11.4°C 40% 0mm 0%

So very cold nights from nexdt Monday onwards. And about a quarter possibility of a storm late Sunday/early Monday.

Personally, I will check what is happening to present turbulence in Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. And batten everything down and head for the hills (oh, I am already in hills :-( :-() if the risk increases substantially.

Just glad I am not working on Monday. Even 9mm in London translates to roads blocked and reservoirs overflowing in the Valleys :-(

Oh great, got to be at the docs 9.30 Monday morning!!! :-S

26 years ago this month, the forecasters got it very wrong.

I for 1 will be 'battening down' the hatches & making sure that there is nothing able to blow about causing damage. I will also check torches & fuel for the generator.

High winds whilst the trees are still heavy with leaves are in danger of falling so out here in the countryside we could get cut off again.

:-(

Time to batten down the hatches :-0

Chief Forecaster's assessment Weather Impact
1038 on Thu 24 Oct 2013
Valid from:
0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013
Valid to:
2100 on Mon 28 Oct 2013


A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell of weather for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding.

At this early stage there is uncertainty about the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies.

A strong, high-level jet is expected to engage warm low level air to give rise to a rapidly moving low pressure system later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in southwesterly winds ahead of the low and west to northwesterly winds behind it.
...............

Thank goodness they are using the phrases "there is uncertainty about the timing, intensity and track" and "There is the potential" implying that it could be less severe than predicted

The Daily Express have severe weather stories nearly every day so I'm not taking much notice of their front page story this morning and if it happens there's not anything I can do to stop it

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName=uk

The Met Office is currently showing a severe weather warning for Monday for the southwest of the country and south below the Thames.

Talking about forecasts reminded me of this thread, from May of this year.. lol


http://www.genesreunited.co.uk/boards/board/general_chat/thread/1324803

looking on the BBC weather five day weather forecast there is snow for the Aberystwyth area for Monday :-(

John, it is not only the Telegraph, the Daily Mail, and the Daily Express who are running, as you put it, these freak weather stories - the BBC News on their regular weather bulletins are giving out information on this potential storm which is predicted to hit the UK on Sunday night and Monday, and those isobar charts say to me that it will be more than a bit gusty.

I don't think anyone is distributing freak weather stories, merely warning people of a real possibility of a storm hitting the UK. In October 1987 they got crucified for not giving sufficient warnings - they can't win it seems.