General Chat

It was, as you state, Janet, hypothetical.
I don't condone any so-called 'superpower' invading another country to 'sort it out'.
We should put ourselves in the others' position before wading in.

Quite an interesting hypothetical, Maggie.

Plenty of countries want to wade in and sort out problems once children are being mutilated and murdered. And quite chilling when you bring that into our area of the world like Northern Ireland.

Neighbouring countries would be best to wade in - like Iraq into Kuwait, like Germany into Poland, like USA into Cuba. Or perhaps not :-( :-(

I think it is wrong and somewhat misguided to compare what is going on in Syria currently with what happened in Northern Ireland.

I also think that using levity over the atrocities that occurred in Poland etc is a little sick.

I wasn't comparing the two, I was putting myself in the feet of others.
During the IRA atrocities, we were trying to sort out the problem, meanwhile, associations in America were funding the IRA.
Which side was right?

My argument is, Western governments, or representatives thereof, seem to wade in without considering the pro's & cons.
We've tried to help Iraq, with little result, Afghanistan is still in turmoil, with many ancient historic sites destroyed by the Americans.
When we leave these countries, things will go back to what they were.
They need to sort themselves out, we can't make them think and live like we do. They have different values.

This country is cutting it's defence force, there are people so short of money, they have to use food banks, and Cameron is having talks with Obama about Syria.

Meanwhile, Cameron's government is castigating immigrants - regardless of status. Refugees are having a hard time at the moment. Who will be responsible for Syrian refugees?

Strange that others' have said similar to me, but my view is 'wrong' :-D

Maggiewinchester - sorry - I was not making reference to your comments. I just found the comments by a preceding poster a little distasteful.

Just leave it, Errol, if you have nothing to say about a subject ;-) No idea who you are having a go at in your usual attempt to take the highest moral ground, but intellectual catchweight contests are not very entertaining and just divert the thread.

John I have as much right to post on this thread as anyone else and you certainly do not have the right to dictate who can and who cannot post, again.

I have stated my feelings about the use of drones if you read back and have also made valid points about making comparisons.

This is a debate. If you don't like others' opinions then do not join in the debate - quite simple really.

No offence taken Errol. It's not just you - but hey, life isn't a rehearsal so I don't bother bearing grudges.
Certainly wouldn't try to tell you what to think, or where to post - similar situation to invading other countries, (ie - I - the great 'I' have decide you are not behaving the way 'we' think is acceptable, you have nothing to say about the subject because I am always right - I have my fingers in my ears and am going 'Laa laaa laa' and you should do what I say) but on a much smaller scale!!
:-D :-D :-D

Very true words indeed Maggiewinchester (and glad you didn't take offence)

Have just looked again through this thread, and comment by OFITG at 12.19 (right at the beginning of thread) is very good, I think.

Like many in the West, we just want to stop it. We want to see no more children caught up in these atrocities. But we don't understand the history, the culture. Just read this from Jerusalem Post:

"In Syria, there is no choice between “good” and “bad.”

The Assad regime is bad, but the opposition that is in its formative stage is shaping up to be quite bad as well, perhaps even worse from a Western perspective.

A coalition of al-Qaida-affiliated gangs is gaining control of more and more territory in Syria, including some of the country’s larger cities. Assad’s fall would lead to a situation whereby the West will find itself faced with a threat that is no less scary – a regime led by extremist Sunni militias that will have neither the ability nor the inclination to engage the US and the West – and, by extension, certainly Israel – in dialogue."

Although Obama is talking of redline decisions and US troops are moving in on Syria, I now feel jaw-jaw with Russians and Assad regime may not yet have been exhausted. And I write that, knowing that more innocents will be murdered this week.:-(

Well it would do given its connection with the Wall Street Journal, wouldn't it?

I wouldn't go reading the Jerusalem Post to get any idea of what is happening in Syria. Apart from anything else the J.P assumes that what Israel wants, hopes for or fears is the same as for the USA and Europe. This is a wildly wrong assumption.

If people are shooting at you, dropping bombs on your home then you'll not be too fussy where any help comes from so long as they can shoot straight.

Thanks Rollo. Only reason I quoted that passage from JP is that it seems a simple analysis of where Syria is now. And it seems to be similar to what I read in the i (Independent) on Friday. I also watched an interview on Breakfast News this morning with an Arabic political commentator and that seemed very even-handed.

Not sure even the deepest analysis helps, unfortunately. We are where we are, and these problems keep bubbling away. Meanwhile, huge numbers of Syrian citizens (is it 1.9m?) are now refugees.

Syria, before the current civil war, was not a backward third world country though by no means wealthy. The typical standard of living was similar to Greece. People of all races and religions rubbed along fairly well although in the countryside there was far less mixing of Sunni and Alawite. The Orthodox Christians mostly live in the major cities of western Syria. Before 1948 there were a lot of Jewish families and until recently at least some hung on.

The country had some of the finest city scapes in the middle east. Somehow UNESCO will have to find the funds to restore Aleppo at least, one of my favorite places.

Democracy is actually the answer to many evils and is not imposed by western liberals but a basic human need. However each country and culture needs a democracy shaped to its needs and that takes time. It is fascinating to watch democracy and the rule of law slowly and gradually take root in China. It is significant that China has not given any support to Assad.

The problems of Syria are very typical of the Islamic world as a whole. Islam DOES NOT see any separation between the state and religion, indeed it barely recognises the secular state at all. Instead what traditional Islam advocates is a unity of Islamic people governed by a Caliph ( Sunni ) or Ayatollah ( Shi'a). That is for instance what the Muslim Brotherhood wants. So do the Taliban with the added bonus of a very primitive interpretation of the Koran.

The main alternative to political Islam has been a kind of modernist nationalism epitomised by Nasser in Egypt and the Ba'ath ( renaissance ) party in Iraq and Syria. Unfortunately these modernists have shown little interest in democracy and are much closer to the fascism of Mussolini or Franco.

In Syria the Assad family established control of the Ba'ath party using means similar to those of the Mafiosi and rule with a rod of iron. The 1982 massacre in Hama showed that the regime has teeth. The present regime is totally dominated by the Alawites who are a Shi'ite sect. They have the backing of the Christians. At least 70% of the population are Sunni without any political voice.

Syria has benefited from a relatively small scale oil field in the east of the country and funds poured in by Russia which has established a major naval base on the Mediterranean coast. Farming is fairly efficient.

So far as one kept out of politics Syria was a good place for a tourist, lots to see and do, good cooking based on Lebanese and Turkish cuisine.

By denying the Sunni any voice over the last 70 years the Ba'ath party stoked up a volcano of resentment which exploded in 1982 and again in 2012. The best opportunity the west had to do anything was in the early days of the current uprising when a bit more support to the moderates and students who led the uprising could have paid off. The chance was let go for fear of upsetting the Russians.

So now we are where we are following an entirely predictable path and once more finding that the delicate diplomatic world of the UN or the legal niceties of not intervening in the chaos of civil wars has little resonance with real life, or rather death.

Instead of irritating the Russians missile strikes will enrage them. OTOH doing nothing will in the eyes of much of the world make the USA appear an old bedraggled eagle with blunt talons and few feathers.

The only way now to avoid the coming strikes is for Russia to back down on its support for Assad and force a conference. The country has a lot to gain from such a course. However Putin, a former top dog in the KGB, is intent on restoring the USSR and is unlikely to tango.

The almost certain coming strikes may well be justifiable and necessary. The downside is that far from forcing Assad into a more conciliatory attitude he is likely to lash out like an enraged bull. Russia can do little materially to assist as NATO controls the air space. So long as its naval base is left alone Russia will do little more than rant. Tehran is keeping its powder dry in case of any US attack on Nataz etc.

Hopefully we won't be reading about the Guns of September but I'd dig out your old tin hat.

Wow!! What an excellent analysis, Rollo.

I knew a little about Russian investment and involvement. Weren't China also the "fly in the ointment" that stopped a quick removal of Assad and his regime when it all started? And you mention Tehran - what is stance of the Turks?

Bringing it down to my simplistic level, you make the point that 70% are Sunni and they have no political voice. Up till 1832 in UK, more than 70% were working class and they had no political voice. And in Wales and Scotland throughout much of my life, more than 70% must have been Labour or Liberal voters, yet they have never really had any political voice in Westminster - where Tories have held sway for the majority of those years.

It does hurt. If you were a Roman Catholic in the north of Ireland, it must have hurt. But during all of that hurt and many martyrdoms, the average family has just got on with our dull and fairly predictable lives. As long as we get plenty of soma (Aldous Huxley), we are happy. Enough in our pockets, enough to eat, a mobile phone, TV and computer. And we feel safe - I doubt most could be bothered. These sort of threads attract little response on Genes chat, and are often diverted by cheap points scoring against other posters.

And I do apologise if I get involved in that sometimes, because I really enjoy discussing topics properly and there are many others who also enjoy it.

It is a good discussion so why do you spoil it John with spiteful remarks

The Middle East is in many ways like a hand grenade and Syria is the firing pin waiting to be pulled, any attack on Syria would be akin to pulling the firing pin out of the grenade and the consequences of resulting explosion will be with us for many years to come. It could take us back to the politics of the dark days of the Cold War with Russia as they are a massive player in Syria, it will heighten the already highly inflame situation in the Middle East, and it will unleash a back lash from numerous extremist/terrorist groups.

It would be stupid and foolhardy to think that Russia influence will persuade Syria to seek a peaceful solution through discussions, maybe their influence will, on the other hand maybe it won't. Russia has spent a lot of time and invested a lot of money in fostering relations with Syria and in the process they have considerable interest in the country, among these are a naval base at Tartous and several large oil installations, and if the West think that Russia will not take steps to defend their interests, they must be living in cloud cuckoo land.

There are warships already in the Mediterranean and more are on their way, deadly missiles are already being primed and pointed towards Syria, our Prime Minister has the word "Fire" on the tip of his tongue, all this while our Parliament is on holiday and unable to have any say on the matter.

This must surely be wrong, Parliament must be recalled immediately and given the opportunity to not only debate the issue but vote on it, after all in an interview in June this year when asked about arming the rebels in Syria the Prime Minister David Cameron said - "I supported having a vote on the Iraq war, and as Prime Minister I made sure there was a vote on the action we took in Libya, I think Parliament should have a say about these things.

As much as I am horrified by the appalling atrocities that are happening in Syria, in my opinion, probably because I do not trust him, the Prime Minister should stop posturing on the world stage and request The Speaker to recall Parliament immediately.

Lilybids - English is not my first language (unofficially) but I cannot see how John's contribution this morning is 'spiteful'.

Perhaps you would elucidate.

On news this morning, Douglas Alexander is calling for a return of Parliament to discuss Syria. But doesn't sound likely to me - they do rather enjoy these breaks.

Cameron has said that he does not need unanimous UN backing to go in, and reserves the right to act decisively once these UN investigators have reported on situation vis a vis chemical weapons in Damascus suburbs.

Looks like a very worrying and rapid escalation this week. With all our MPs still sunning themselves. :-(

OFITG is right to say that the Russians are unlikely to be very pleased at any attack on Assad's military assets.

However de facto there is not much they can do about it especially if Frau Merkel has accepted a limited attack. The decisions will be made in Washington not Downing Street so what Brave Dave does or doesn't do is hardly relevant, ditto the back benches.

Turkey has already denied transit airspace for Russian munitions across its territory. It has forced several flights down and was quite prepared to destroy them.

Russian supplied anti aircraft defense systems have been thoroughly gamed by NATO and are as much use against US/UK front line attack as a wet rag. New improved kit has only been installed to a limited extent and is totally reliant on Russian manpower. It is vulnerable to Cruise strikes. Russian military security is so poor that they have resorted to handwritten messages conveyed by old fashioned means.

The base at Tartus could be taken out in under an hour. However unless it was used for (say) an attack on Cyprus then it will be left alone. Even Putin has a vague grasp on reality.

Russia has moved offensive missiles into its EU enclave in Kaliningrad along with a squadron of Fulcrum MIG jets. It is fond of "exercises" near the Baltic states but any sort of mischief here is wildly unlikely as the Russian economy is so tightly linked to that of Germany.

The only other lever Russia has is to cut the gas supply. It has done this before but a pretty futile response in mid-summer. Given that Russia has never been at risk of losing its base at Tartus Putin has played a pretty poor hand. Now the toothlessness of the Russian bear will be all too obvious.

Tehran may rant and rave but action not likely to go any further then inciting Hezbollah into more massacres and possibly missile attacks into Israel.

Most of the MPs who are demanding for parliament to be recalled barely know where Syria is. They are not interested in the issues only their own pet hobby horses. That is especially true of the Tory back bench.

One thing is for sure. China and the USA are drawing closer together and the ancient Russian nightmare of encirclement looms. As the modern shining example of fascism it has few friends.